A PEOPLE “NOT BUSY BEING BORN IS A BUSY DYING….”
The Irish are staring down the barrel of minority status in their own country.
In a recent discussion with Aisling O’Loughlin, I said that in all likelihood by 2025 or soon thereafter, the Irish people would have ceased to replenish itself ie Irish deaths would be greater than Irish births.
I got responses of shock, horror and disbelief.
The only surprise I got was from other people’s surprise.
While the Irish death count gets higher, the Irish fertility rate is falling and the ‘new’ Irish are breeding like the old Irish used to.
Add in the massive inward migration and as I keep repeating ad nauseum, it’s a ‘replacement’ not a plantation.
The clue is in the word.
CSO VITAL STATISTICS 2023:
On Friday 24th May, the CSO released its VITAL STATISTICS report for 2023 Q4 and its Yearly Summary for 2023.
I will use these and previous CSO Vital Statistic reports and projections to back up this claim of negative replacement.
Linked here with previous years.
These reports reflect REGISTERED births which are not necessarily the same as the year of occurrence.
There is a 3 month period allowed for registration of births but this doesn’t in any way affect the general premise and conclusions of this article.
Strap yourself in.
You ain’t going to like it, but this has massive ramifications for your children’s and grand children’s future unless corrective action is taken immediately.
To deal with a problem you first need to know the severity of it.
ARE THE IRISH REPLENISHING THEIR POPULATION ? :
The short answer to the above posed question is NO, and not for the immediate future based on the CSO data available.
As per Table 1, since 2015, the natural increase in the ‘Irish’ population has fallen from over 20,950 to 4,107 in 2023 (down 80%) with the expectation being that this will be a negative figure from 2025 onwards for six or seven years at the very least based on current fertility and mortality rates.
Irish deaths will continue to exceed Irish births at least well into the 2030’s due to falling fertility as per CSO projections (see below). Deaths are on the rise and will continue to do so because of our aging population and the vaccine induced democide that is currently in progress.
Read that again.
Irish deaths will exceed Irish deaths into the 2030’s and probably longer.
This is discussed further below.
As you can see from Table 1, this problem is coming for a while but the fall in Irish fertility and increase in Irish mortality since 2021 has hastened the arrival of ‘negative replacement’.
‘Negative replacement’ is statistical code for, the Irish are a dying breed.
WHAT ARE ‘IRISH’ BIRTHS ? :
‘Irish’ births in Table 2 are those births registered and identified by ‘Nationality of Mother’ with the GRO, categorised and reported on by the CSO as in the example below for 2022.
These birth figures refer to ‘nationality’ of mother, which is a rather mercurial concept in these globalist ‘one world’ times.
If you are assuming that all of these births are to ‘native Irish’ mothers then you are likely being misled, although to what extent is unsure.
I queried the CSO on the requirement for a birth to be categorised as to an ‘Irish’ mother and wasn’t at all surprised to find out this is subjectively left up to the person completing the registration. (See email trail below).
A foreign woman who arrives in Ireland, can register herself/the birth as ‘Irish’ in the hope it might confer some advantage on her and her offspring, and who could blame her.
This would be categorised as an ‘Irish’ birth, as above.
She can do this regardless of Irish ‘citizenship’, which in itself is a technical meaningless construct as regards being ‘Irish’.
So to answer my own question, I think at the very least it’s correct to assume that the figure for births to ‘Irish’ mothers reported by the CSO could be deceptive and the number given would be the maximum of what we might call, ‘Irish’ births per CSO analysis.
That’s the figure I have included in the calculations above.
These terms and definitions (Irish) are not mine but are used by the GRO/CSO in their reports and analysis.
I am explaining what they mean in reality and you can make your conclusions thereafter.
Caveat emptor.
Now let’s look at the numbers.
BIRTHS TO ‘IRISH’ MOTHERS:
Births to ‘Irish’ mothers have fallen from 51,352 in 2015 to 40,552 in 2023.
A 21% collapse over 8 years.
2021 saw a temporary increase after 6 years of falling births but has been followed by a dramatic 11% fall in the two years since.
Naomi Wolfe is constantly reiterating that the Covid mRNA vaccines are an attack on female fertility and consequently feed into a depopulation agenda.
The dramatic fall in registered ‘Irish’ births in 2022 and 2023 correlates with her views along with the increase in excess Irish deaths in the same time frame.
A fall in total births was expected but not to this extent.
In 2023, registered births to ‘Irish’ mothers were 74.2% of total births, down from 77.1% in 2021.
I have estimated ‘Irish’ and other births for 2024 and 2025 conservatively, based on the trends since 2015 and since 2021 in particular.
CSO projections below also back up these estimates.
If the above shocks you, the next section will take your breath away.
NON ‘IRISH’ BIRTHS:
The dramatic fall in fertility is even more pronounced in births to UK & EU mothers, with a 39% fall over 8 years followed by a 13% fall since 2021.
However, ‘Other’ nationalities are up 3605 (87%) in 2023 since 2015.
Yes, that says up 87%.
I estimate 10,250 births to ‘Other’ nationalities in 2025 based on current trends which would be an 32% increase on 2023.
While all other birth rates in Ireland are falling these are rocketing.
How convenient for ‘Official Ireland’.
So, what does ‘Other’ mean, you might ask ?
Sorry, we are not told that, but I can tell you in a roundabout way.
It means not Irish, British or any other EU country so you can take your pick after that.
‘Other’ nationalities now provide 14.2% of the annual births, up from 6% in 2015 but we are not informed of the countries of origin.
I estimate, based on current trends that in 2025, ‘Other’ nationalities will make up 19% of total births with ‘Irish’ down to 69%.
In previous times, a dip in Irish fertility would not be a major concern but combined with inward migration of all sorts, the ‘slack’ of falling ‘Irish’ births is being taken up by ‘Others’.
In 2022, ‘Muhammad’ was the most popular new baby name in Galway city.
Read it and weep for the soul of a nation.
IRISH DEATHS :
These are the latest mortality figures available as per CSO (by year of occurrence) plus estimates based on rip.ie analysis from irelandexcessdeaths.com
https://data.cso.ie VSA35 report gives latest deaths for 2007-2020
2021, 2022 & 2023 latest mortality is per CSO Quarterly reports for 2023 per link above.
CSO figures for 2021, 2022 and 2023 would be severely understated due to late registrations, inquests etc. so I have used estimates taken from irelandexcessdeaths.com instead.
I realise there is no analysis of ‘nationality’ in mortality figures so I have deducted 1.5% as an estimate of non Irish deaths from the full figures, in my calculations.
The CSO, say that 97% apprx of deaths appear in rip.ie.
It is very rare to see a ‘foreign’ face or name in the funeral notices.
The age profile of the ‘new’ Irish being a lot younger than us ‘old’ Irish would explain this and also that rip.ie is an Irish cultural phenomenon.
The year of negative replacement is coming sooner rather than later.
If you dismiss my overall findings above, about Irish net replenishment, on the basis of non analysis of deaths between Irish and non Irish then you are missing the point.
To paraphrase the election taunt aimed at George Bush: “its the BIRTHS, stupid”
Let’s continue and stare into the abyss…..
WILL 2025 BE THE POINT OF NO RETURN ? :
The CSO produced a projection for births, deaths and natural increase for years 2017 to 2051. see link below.
Projected Births:
They made birth projections based on 6 different scenarios (Figure 2.4)
In their worst case scenario, the CSO expected total births (Irish & non Irish) to continue to fall until 2030 with 51,610 births, in that year.
The actual total births for 2023 are 54,678 (55,913 was projected as worst case scenario for 2023) so currently the birth rate is worse than the worst expected scenario.
Every year since 2017 has being lower than the worst scenario projected, except for 2022 which exceeded it by 400, less than 1%.
Remember, we are talking about the WORST case scenario projected.
Presumably this CSO projection was based on ‘Irish’ births not falling through the floor as they have done in 2022 and 2023.
We are still 7 years away from what the CSO actuarially expect to be the lowest possible year for births between now and 2051, but are only 2800 births above that expected low.
With negative replacement for ‘Irish’ being hit in 2025 the likelihood is it will continue until 2030 at least and likely longer because of expected falling birth rates and rising mortality.
See next section for even worse news.
These CSO predictions, only 7 years ago were their worst case scenario but at this stage are probably meaningless because of the Irish fertility collapse combined with unexpected emigration and immigration.
The outlook is even worse than they thought.
The CSO see projected births rising after 2030 peaking in 2043 at between 56000 and 74000 births.
Good luck with that.
The BIG question is what percentage of these will be ‘Irish’ births come 2043.
Births are expected to keep falling until 2030 based on actuarial data.
Ponder that, if they tell over the next few years that births are up.
Your next question should be, if so, are they Irish ?
Projected Natural Increase:
The ‘Irish’ population is aging and regardless of the fact that many are currently dying ahead of their time, the mortality rate will climb steadily until 2050 reaching 57,000 deaths annually per CSO projections.
The vast bulk of these deaths will be Irish.
Look at that note on ‘natural increase’ from the CSO Projections.
In the CSO’s ‘most pessimistic scenario (M3F2), the natural increase though still projected to be positive, will fall to just 1800 per annum in the period 2046-2051’ (see below).
Remember, we are 6 years into these projections and total births are below the worst case scenario projected.
*** What they don’t tell you, is that if you remove 30% + of non Irish births, which without doubt will be the case, then you have NEGATIVE natural increase for the Irish from 2025 onwards under that scenario. ie 2026 - 2031: 51.9 less 30% = 36.3 ‘Irish’ births which leaves negative ‘Irish’ replacement.
*** In other words the Irish would NOT be replenishing themselves. ***
That’s the worst case scenario projected which we aren’t even achieving at the moment but the more optimistic scenarios above don’t look much better if the same logic of removing non Irish births is applied.
This is while blindly ignoring that these scenarios are looking like ‘pie in the sky’, considering the current birth rates.
But maybe logic has nothing to do with it ….
THE ULTIMATE IRISH JOKE:
Nowhere in the CSO projections is a distinction made between Irish and non Irish births however crude an estimate that would have to be.
It’s like it doesn’t matter to the stats men whether the births are Irish or not.
Well that’s because it doesn’t.
‘Official Ireland’ don’t care who lives in Ireland in the future because they are only interested in economic units, pure and simple.
Irish soul is a devalued currency.
Now throw in the current high immigration numbers on top of the negative Irish natural replenishment.
Do you now see why it’s not a plantation as bad and all as that would be, but a replacement?
The Irish are diminishing in numbers because of falling fertility, excess deaths and emigration of our women of child bearing age due to the housing crisis.
We are dying out and are being REPLACED through past and current massive uncontrolled, unvetted immigration.
In 50 years, without immediate corrective action, the ‘new’ Irish will be ‘the Irish’ and the ‘old’ Irish will have been ‘memory holed’ ala the classic Orwellian euphemism.
Out with old, in with new.
If things don't change soon the Irish people will have a government and councillors from elsewhere and it will be then they will realize that they are no longer the majority on this island and will have no power to reverse things at that stage. Brilliant article Patrick well done to you for having the balls to put it out here on substack .
This is great work and so clearly written, the stuff to pass on to the more educated/ middle-class types that lean heavily towards vacuous virtue signalling, that live in residential areas shielded from the new immigrant realities. Recent local incidents I witnessed were large numbers of immigrants on rural public transport, leaving local working class people without seats, or an attack on an elderly lady in a charity shop, the kind of thing that just won’t be seen in an upmarket boutique.
All companies with the BlackRock-type funding at root will gain tax credits at source for promoting ‘diversity’, this is significant in media, arts, sports. One historic Irish theatre presented a ‘reimagined’ Sive by John B Keane, with a coloured actress in the main part, originally a last-century rural Irish woman. We will be presented with the fluent Gaeilge immigrant soon, all the middle-class culture/media channels are subliminally injecting the immigrant theme into the collective, but the working class communities have been injected with the harsh reality.
We must puncture the middle-class virtue signalling strata. And articles like this are the best swords to do so.
We are fighting psychological warfare, social engineering and brainwashing, articles like these are our weapons of choice.
Let’s spread the word.