IRISH ACTUARIAL REPORT ON EXCESS DEATHS 2020 & 2021.
The devilish detail is written between the lines.
The Society of Actuaries in Ireland (SoAI) has today issued a report: ‘The Level of Excess Mortality in Ireland during the Covid 19 Pandemic 2020 & 2021’. which I have linked here.
https://web.actuaries.ie/news/24/06/report-level-excess-mortality-ireland-during-pandemic-years
The report is short and I would recommend reading it and forming your own conclusions as any headlines you see in mainstream media will be disingenuous at best.
The devil is in the detail or the lack of it as the case might be.
OVERVIEW AND OPINION:
This report is based on incomplete CSO mortality data for 2021 which is misleadingly described as ‘finalised’. (Details Below)
This error leads to an understatement of excess deaths overall by 70% and crucially for ‘sudden and unexpected’ deaths in the 0-64 age group. (Details Below)
This report draws a clear line in the sand, showing the excess deaths only started after the vax roll out in December 2020.
Despite these misgivings, I see the truth of no pandemic in 2020 confirmed in the report and the consequence of this, is that all the press releases on deaths in 2020 were lies, designed to deceive.
Despite these misgivings, I see the truth of excess deaths for 2021 confirmed in the report after taking account of an ageing population, albeit understated in error. (Details Below)
Despite these misgivings, I see the truth of excess death rates for 2021 confirmed in the 0-64 and 85+ age groups that “cannot be attributed to normal fluctuations” although they are understated in error. (Details below).
REPORT BASIS AND AIMS:
The report aims to measure excess mortality for 2020 and 2021 in Ireland by calculating ‘Age Standardised Excess Deaths (ASED)’ for previous years using 2021 actual deaths and population mix as the basis for the comparison.
This is very detailed in structure but basically attempts to take account of Ireland’s aging population in deciding did we experience excess mortality during 2020 and 2021.
They have deemed the 3 years 2017-2019 as the most appropriate baseline to use, we will come back to this later.
In the introduction, they point out different methods of measuring excess mortality, what I and others have said previously about the nonsense of the OECD Excess Deaths report and the stamp of approval the CSO gave to excess death estimates based on rip.ie analysis.
They also say ‘finalised death data for Ireland for 2021 was made available by the CSO towards the end of 2023 and is used in our analysis’.
Unfortunately, this is NOT true.
They are entitled to have a cut off date (March 2024) to compile their report but it is misleading and incorrect to say that the data is ‘finalised’ as this gives the impression that all the evidence is in, when as I will show you, it clearly isn’t.
This leads to them under reporting the excess deaths with their chosen method and it’s possible it also would have effected the calculation of ASED figures too but I can’t comment on that.
I welcome much of what’s in this report as I will detail later but it’s important that I prove this point regarding incomplete data, that most certainly is NOT ‘finalised’.
The SoAI get their figure for deaths in 2021 of 34,844 from the CSO ‘Annual Report’ dated 31/10/23 as shown here.
What they don’t say is that deaths that occurred in 2021 continue to be registered after this Annual Report was issued, due mainly to delayed inquests which by definition refer to ‘sudden and unexpected’ deaths and that is important in the context of this wider discussion.
Sudden and unexpected deaths refer for the most part to younger age groups which I will refer to below.
In 2023 the CSO initiated a new idea of showing the most up to date death registrations by quarter of OCCURRENCE for previous periods. I show them here for 2023 and where they reference 2021.
I am not sure if the above pictures can be opened through the email but the figures can be found in the 4 Quarterly reports for CSO Vital Statistics for 2023.
The most up to date total of deaths occurring for 2021 per these reports is 10037 + 7678 + 7984 + 9345 = 35044.
Also very importantly, 2024 and following years will have death registrations for 2021 as evidenced by this ‘late registrations’ report issued in the CSO 2023 Q4 report.
Based on this and the massive backlog with inquests, it is reasonable to estimate another 500 deaths will be registered for 2021 over the coming years.
35044 plus 500 = 35544 which is 700 deaths higher than the SoAI are saying is the ‘finalised’ figure.
This is extremely important to keep in mind when you see their figures for excess deaths.
HEADLINE FIGURES:
The report states:
“The results demonstrate that Ireland experienced approximately 1,100 excess deaths over the two-year period”.
While this is a factually correct statement it is soooooo misleading I can only assume it’s very deliberate in its phrasing.
In a nutshell, what this report actually says is that there were NO excess deaths in 2020 when the government and mainstream media were telling us ad nauseum every day that people were dying in their thousands.
And then after the ‘safe and effective’ vaccines were introduced in late 2020, the excess deaths appear and are confirmed.
It’s gaslighting to lump these two years in together and pretend they are not importantly separated by the vax roll out in late December 2020.
They estimate 1,026 excess deaths for 2021 after taking account of aging but you must add at least 700 to that figure as I detail above, re late registrations.
That makes 1,726 excess deaths for 2021 which is nearly 70% higher than they say in the report.
All is left now is to put a final figure on the excess deaths, ring the guards and wait for the trials.
I wish.
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAIL AND READING BETWEEN THE LINES (Part 1) :
Here is ‘Figure 3’ from the report showing ASED deaths for 2010-2021 which is based on 2021 deaths and population structure.
In the ‘Executive Summary’ they state the following:
What they are saying here is that they have ignored the strong downward trend in mortality since 2010 as evidenced in Figure 3 in their calculations and in doing so, excess deaths as reported by them in 2020 and 2021 are lower than might ‘reasonably’ expected to be seen by ‘a reader’.
This is a legitimate decision they have made in deciding on 2017-2019 as the baseline but they are acknowledging the consequent effect on the results.
In their ‘Conclusion’ they go out of their way to re-emphasise this point.
“…it is reasonable to assume that such an exercise would indicate that the pandemic did result in … a more significant impact in 2021 than suggested”.
In the introduction to the report, it is stated: “Ireland has experienced significant improvements in mortality since the start of the 21st Century..however, these rapid mortality improvements were brought to an abrupt halt by the onset of SARS Cov 2…”.
Since they state that there were no excess deaths in 2020, then these ‘significant improvements in mortality’ were brought to an ‘abrupt halt’ and reversed in 2021.
That correlates not with Covid 19 but with …..
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAIL AND READING BETWEEN THE LINES (Part 2) :
‘Figure 5’ gives us an analysis of the results by age group.
Each age group is showing ‘excess mortality’ in 2021 and this is very important considering there are approximately 700 late registration deaths missing from here due to inquests.(see above).
Inquests deal with ‘sudden and unexplained’ deaths and as such are more likely to be attributable to age group 0-64.
If only 420 deaths (60% of the 700) were added to the 2021 graph above, it would literally be off the scale.
That is a 14% increase in mortality in the 0-64 age group in 2021.
In the Appendix, the SoAI pose the question, “could the excess deaths reported earlier in this report be due to normal fluctuations rather than solely attributed to the Covid 19 pandemic”?
The answer is emphatically NO; “2021 cannot be attributed to typical fluctuations” and the scale of the difference is indicated in the black line on the graph.
They pose the same question regarding the age groups and come up with the following answer.
The answer is emphatically NO in the 0-64 and 85+ age groups as indicated by the black lines.
And don’t forget, 700 late registered deaths are not included in the 2021 figures in these graphs.
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAIL AND READING BETWEEN THE LINES (Part 3) :
In the ‘Conclusion’ they consider the ‘conundrum’ as to why excess deaths “were higher in 2021 compared to 2020”.
Someone wrote the following and put their name to it in 2024 !
In emphasising the ‘success’ of low excess deaths in 2020 they praise “government imposed restrictions…as one potentially significant factor” and offer as “supportive” proof a ‘Stringency Index’ which takes account of vaccination rates.
I kid you not.
They don’t offer an explanation as to why all the excess deaths occur in 2021 if the mRNA vaccines as lauded in the ‘Stringency Index’, are so ‘safe and effective’.
It seems mortality due to “negative effects of delayed medical diagnoses and treatment” were unforeseeable….and that “…an increased focus on monitoring and improving care for the elderly could positively impact on future mortality trends”
That last line is a doozie for all those who remember the nursing home euthanasia in 2020.
This is how the Irish Times are pushing today’s propaganda.
This is not analysis but a press release like the one parroted by Fergal Bowers on RTE this morning, that serves the government narrative.
They obviously didn’t read the same report as me.
The bravado of the lies in the OECD Excess Deaths report in early January is now forgotten.
They are now drip feeding us the truth.
Remember they haven’t got to lying about 2022 and 2023 yet.
I am so fcuking tired of this but to quote that bundle of misery, Beckett….
“You must go on,
I can’t go on,
I’ll go on.”
Thank you Patrick E for your work. Thank you for your critique of the Society of Actuaries Report .
Somehow your voice needs to be heard when the 2020 - 2024 Period is being examined.
From March 2020 onwards the collective was programmed to expect wartime death curves, our enemy was the virus and our duty was to ‘flatten the curve’ the death curve (which we now know was related to in-hospital medication and treatments administered). Newstime imagery were coffins, mass graves, army truck convoys to take the corpses, and curves - extraordinary numbers of deaths were on the cards for everyone. Then in summertime we had the expected death curves, the mathematical modelling ones, forecasts. These were outrageously high and overstated. And this was the trick, they mixed so-called virus related deaths with very high predicted death numbers, they blended so-called fact with fear-inducing hypothetical, it became more difficult to discern fact from fiction. It all blurred into one big huge awful death curves. The expected huge numbers of deaths came only after the injection.we didn’t freak out, we had been expecting lots of deaths anyway, and we had been engineered to not discern the cause of these deaths, it’s all a bit fuzzy, the average person does not know how many died with/of the virus, neither do they know the post-injection-rollout surge in deaths. We are still in a state of mind content to blend so-called fact with fiction. Realistic people can see the extra deaths, others can gloss over it and opt to adhere to deceitful calculations like the above.
The authors and people responsible for this misrepresentation of statistics must be called out, held accountable and be dealt justice. It is complicity in the cover-up of our quota genocide. That’s evil. We see you.